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We will see why inaction on climate change is “incompatible with organized global community, is likely to be beyond ‘adaptation’, is devastating to the majority of ecosystems & has a high probability of not being stable (i.e. Please add links to more studies in the comments. This post - an update - covers more than 60 recent scientific studies along with numerous review pieces that themselves each cover a large segment of the recent literature.
ECO GLOBAL SURVIVAL FARMING GUIDE SERIES
That series will make clear that we have an unusually high degree of certainty around future climate impacts if we stay anywhere near our current emissions path. It will serve as a foundation for a multi-part series that attempts to clear up some of the confusion over the supposed high degree of “uncertainty” surrounding climate impacts. This post will review the latest findings. Freudenburg of UC Santa Barbara discussed his research on “ the Asymmetry of Scientific Challenge“: New scientific findings since the 2007 IPCC report are found to be more than twenty times as likely to indicate that global climate disruption is “worse than previously expected,” rather than “not as bad as previously expected.” In a 2010 AAAS presentation, the late William R. But now the scientific literature on what we face is much richer - as climate scientists have sobered up to their painful role as modern-day Cassandra’s (see Lonnie Thompson on why climatologists are speaking out: “ Virtually all of us are now convinced that global warming poses a clear and present danger to civilization”). So I pieced together those impacts from available studies and from discussions with leading climate scientists for my 2006 book, Hell and High Water. In part, they lowballed the difficult-to-model amplifying feedbacks in the carbon cycle. In part, I think, that’s because they never believed humanity would be so self-destructive as to ignore their science-based warnings and simply continue on its unsustainable path. Until recently, the scientific community has spent little time modeling the impacts of a tripling (~830 ppm) or quadrupling (~1100 ppm) carbon dioxide concentrations from preindustrial levels. What is less well understood is that even a very strong mitigation effort that kept carbon emissions this century to 11 billion tons a year on average would still probably take us to 1000 ppm (A1FI scenario) - a little noted conclusion of the 2007 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report (see “ Nature publishes my climate analysis and solution”).
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Emissions have been rising about 3% per year for the past decade. Annual emissions now exceed 10 billion metric tons of carbon (~37 billions metric tons of CO2). media largely ignores latest warning from climate scientists: “Recent observations confirm … the worst-case IPCC scenario trajectories are being realised”). That is why I have preferred the term “Hell and High Water.”īy virtue of their success in promoting doubt and inaction, the climate science deniers and disinformers have, tragically and ironically, turned the worst-case scenario into business as usual.īusiness as usual typically means continuing at recent growth rates of carbon dioxide emissions, which we now know would likely take us to atmospheric concentrations of CO2 greater than 850 ppm if not above 1000 ppm (see U.S.
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For these impacts, terms like “global warming” and “climate change” are essentially euphemisms. The single biggest failure of messaging by climate scientists (until very recently) has been the failure to explain to the public, opinion makers, and the media that business-as-usual warming results in simultaneous, ever-worsening impacts that, individually, are each beyond catastrophic, but combined are unimaginablly horrific. Equally tragic, a 2009 NOAA-led study found the worst impacts would be “ largely irreversible for 1000 years.” Remember, these will all be happening simultaneously and getting worse decade after decade.
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